Eskom’s decision that households with solar power systems should pay more for electricity is understandable, but it will probably have the opposite effect of what the utility is hoping for.
Households able to afford solar systems will tend to procure more batteries and move entirely off grid. That will leave Eskom with nothing but defaulting consumers.
Eskom’s problem is that its generation capacity needs to be large enough to meet power consumption demands during peak times. Coal-generated power stations, which are still dominating the Eskom scene, cannot be tuned up or down in accordance with electricity demand.
If everything at Eskom is running smoothly and the typical peak consumption is 50 GW, Eskom has to generate this, plus a safety factor, throughout the day.
Peak times range from around 06:00 to 08:00 in the morning, and from 17:00 to 20:00 in the evening. Excess power is lost during the rest of the day.
Solar systems generate the most power from 10:00 to 15:00, precisely when Eskom can easily meet demand.
If Eskom has excess power available during the day, it cannot sell it to consumers with solar power systems. During peak times, however, these consumers rely on Eskom’s power supply. So, under normal circumstances they not only fail to relieve Eskom’s burden, but also contribute less to the state-owned enterprise’s revenue.
Eskom succeeded in persuading the national energy regulator, NERSA, that this distorts the market. Consequently, solar power users will from now on pay more to remain connected to the grid.
By now, everyone knows that all is not well at Eskom. Load shedding occurred during the day and even in the middle of the night, meaning that Eskom was unable to meet electricity demand during any given hour of the day. So, everyone who was able installed their own solar power systems, helping Eskom out of its predicament.
The tariff plan, which is scheduled to come into effect on 1 April, may offer Eskom immediate relief, but consumers will soon do the math and opt to go completely off grid.
Who knows, Eskom might even end up as a state-owned enterprise within the Department of Social Development!
